The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the cash rate one more time before giving borrowers a long reprieve, economists say, after new data showing that housing finance commitments fell for the fifth straight month in February.
Australian housing finance commitments for owner-occupied housing fell 1.8 per cent in February, seasonally adjusted, to 50,287, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
It was below market forecast of a 1.0 per cent fall in the month and was the fifth straight month of decline.
ICAP economist Adam Carr said the lending data would concern the RBA, causing the Bank to reassess the pace of future interest rate rises.
“It’s pointing to a sharp, broad-based decline in lending activity,” Mr Carr said.
“That would suggest to me that we’re getting to the point where the pace of rate hikes will slow, markedly.
“The RBA will only hike once more and then ease off.”
The central bank has lifted the cash rate five times in the past seven months.
The current interest rate is 4.25 per cent.
Meanwhile, RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle told a Senate committee in Sydney the central bank isn’t trying to suppress demand by raising interest rates.
“We’re trying to ensure growth is at a sustainable pace,” he was reported by Bloomberg to have told the Senate Inquiry into Access of Small Business Finance.
Mr Carr said Monday’s ABS data showed activity already was being dampened.
“It’s already happening,” he said.
“So I would imagine that there’s not a lot left in the tightening cycle in the near term at least.”
He could not predict whether the bank would next raise the rate in May or June, however. Read the rest of this entry »